Regional Approaches to Proliferation Prevention -- Persian Gulf Region -- The Stanley Foundation

The Importance of the Persian Gulf Region to Global Security and Stability

Projects of the Persian Gulf Region
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In a world of increasing globalization, industrial and high-tech development, and the rise of several major states in the Developing World such as China, India, and Malaysia, the Persian Gulf harbors the world's largest concentration of oil resources, is a major center for natural gas production, and still leads by far other world oil centers in its ability to extract, process, and transport oil. In short, the Gulf is the preeminent location for the world's most prized strategic resource. Security analysts and petroleum experts alike have determined that even if Russia, Central Asia, and other regions and countries were to massively increase their extraction and processing capabilities, the explosive growth of Asian economies would still require a majority of supplies from the Gulf region.

Unfortunately, the Gulf is also home to inter-state conflicts, ethnic rivalries, radicalized Islam, internal instabilities caused in part by rapid modernization, and persistent problems relating to strategic imbalances between large and small states. While the traditional societies of Arab Monarchies, Iran, and Iraq are transforming themselves rapidly to embrace the challenges and opportunities of the Post-Cold War global economy, problems remain between ethnic and religious groups (Arabs, Kurds, Sunnis, Shi'a), between tribes within states, between state rulers and their citizens, and between states themselves.

Domestically, there is a severe and growing legitimacy gap caused in part by economic stagnation and by a lack of free political space. Civic institutions such as freely elected parliaments are highly circumscribed in their actual power, and political parties and other forms of free expression are weak. As a result, in the Arab Monarchies, social and political dissent is channeled through the mosques and religion—including extreme forms of Sunni Islam. In both Arab states and Iran, economic development is stifled by traditional forms of patronage, by state control of key economic levers, by a lack of technological and human capital development, and by religious restrictions on allowed market activities.

These domestic problems feed into, and are in turn affected by, continuing inter-state disputes. Inter-state competition continues in the form of WMD proliferation, conventional arms buildups, border disputes, and rival claims on leadership over oil prices and other issues. While the invasion of Iraq, the deposing of Saddam Hussein, and the recent trend of Iranian foreign policy toward rapprochement and conciliation with its neighbors have raised new hopes for constructing a set of cooperative, overlapping bilateral and multilateral relationships in the region, the existing gaps in power levels between states still makes any balance of power a fragile situation unless it is guaranteed and defined with the help of external powers.

In general, the trend in the past several decades has been for the three strongest or largest states in the Persian Gulf—Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia - to use their superior human, economic, and/or military power to dominate the sub-region. Even Saudi Arabia, which is lacking in both indigenous military power and human population relative to Iran and Iraq, has used its pre-9/11 ties with the United States to cement US military aid that would complement its existing superior natural resource base (oil reserves) to become the de facto regional rule-maker on questions of oil production levels, diplomatic stances towards the Israeli-Arab dispute, joint military efforts under the GCC, and so on. Any future cooperative framework, or even an attempt to find a new balance of power, would have to contend with this strong historical predisposition among the stronger regional powers to be the hegemonic guarantor of security in their own backyard (with the help of external powers).

Because of these geopolitical realities, traditional notions of Realpolitik inform the dominant thinking and practice among Persian Gulf states today. Regional governments have relied on outside powers to ensure a rough balance of power to protect their concerns over sovereignty, domestic identity, and regime security. Extensive contributions from external powers (US, China, Russia) have been utilized to construct and maintain this balance of power, whether in terms of maintaining a proxy balance through importation of weapons technology (missiles to Iran; advanced conventional weapons to GCC states) or in actual military deployments (US "forward" defense measures).

This reliance on outside powers has substantial benefits for the cooperating partners at the regional level: strong defense and economic links that give the regional partner more strength and flexibility in dealing with its own neighbors (especially for the smaller states when dealing with large nations such as Iran and Saudi Arabia). Furthermore, given the severe shortage of technological and industrial capabilities among many Middle East states—and in some cases, shortages of human population relative to defense needs—the maintenance of a rough balance of power for conflict management would probably be impossible without substantial contributions by external powers.

However, this evolving reliance on bilateral coalitions with external powers creates several paradoxes and policy conundrums:

They contribute to domestic instabilities, because they demonstrate the inability of the government in power to provide for its own defense indigenously, thereby giving the popular impression of dependence on neo-imperial outside powers
The contributions of outside powers may obviate the need for regional governments to form common defense doctrines, weapons programs, and training, thereby feeding into an existing policy inertia that favors bilateral rather than multilateral agreements for defense
These contributions may obviate the need for cooperation in general, because individual states receiving outside military aid (in whatever form) may hope that they can achieve their desired foreign objectives through securing relative advantage over an opponent rather than through compromise and reassurance
The outside contributions may bring with them the particular ideological value systems and associated foreign policy objectives of the foreign power making the contribution, which includes the effects of systemic competition between Great Powers such as the US, China, and Russia. For instance, US disagreements with China over Taiwan could easily lead to uncooperative practices vis-à-vis the Middle East, especially the Gulf sub-region, where China and Russia see aid to Iran as a form of larger global competition with the United States
The contributions may bring with them the domestic political interests and economic objectives of the outside powers, for instance, the need of European powers, Russia, and the US to keep their high-tech arms industries maintained at a level allowing them to keep domestic lobbies and jobs intact
Finally, the security dilemma may overwhelm the stabilizing aspects of the balance of power; what one side sees as defensively oriented deterrent threats and actions (such as weapons purchases and regional alliances) may be viewed offensively by the competitor. This is most starkly seen in the Israeli versus Arab perceptions of the Israeli nuclear deterrent, as well as Iranian perceptions of the Israeli-Turkish bilateral alliance, the purposes and effects of US arms transfers to GCC Arab states, and the purposes of US military bases in Central Asia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Arab Gulf. Meanwhile, both Iran and Israel believe that their own missile capabilities are inherently defensive, while the capabilities of the other are viewed as inherently offensive

To find practical policy solutions for these enduring regional challenges, the RAPP program of the Stanley Foundation will construct, maintain, and enlarge bilateral and multilateral dialogues within the region—and between regional actors and outside powers such as Europe and the United States. RAPP will utilize commissioned papers, workshops, and conferences to explore the possibilities for constructing a new, alternative framework for security in the Persian Gulf for the 21st Century.

Projects of the Persian Gulf Region

Assessing Alternative Frameworks for Persian Gulf Security
This project is meant to address consistent gaps in the policy dialogue concerning regional security and stability in the Persian Gulf region. (June 2003)

Project Information

US Challenges and Choices in the Gulf
This project is a series of off-the-record policy briefings held on Capitol Hill and focuses on US interests in the Persian Gulf region. (Ongoing)

Project Information
Latest Policy Brief

Stabilizing Regions in a Post-9/11 Era: US Relations With China, Iran, and Russia
How have relations between the United States and China, Iran, and Russia changed in the first year of the post-September 11 era? This Policy Bulletin examines each bilateral relationship: US-China, US-Iran, and US-Russia. (October 2002)

Project Information
Policy Bulletin (PDF 180 KB)

US Strategies for Regional Security
US officials and policy experts examine foreign policy and defense strategies for achieving regional security in four major areas of the world: Europe, the Middle East, South Asia, and the Korean peninsula. (October 2001)

Project Information
Full Report (PDF 560 KB)

Related Resources

Global Security Regimes: A Future or a Failure?
The central focus of this project will be the increasing loss of faith in bilateral arms control and disarmament between Great Powers (such as that between the United States and Russia) as well as multilateral forms of disarmament and nonproliferation such as the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), and the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).

Project Information
Policy Bulletin (PDF 246 KB)
Report (PDF 62 KB)

Independent Task Force on US Strategies for National Security: Winning the Peace in the 21st Century
What is the ideal US strategic role in those regions of the world where strategic threats (WMD and missile proliferation) are combined with transnational terrorist actors, economic underdevelopment, resource competition, and heated ideological and military conflicts both within and across borders?

Project Information
Meeting Notes (PDF 59 KB)

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