Engaging Today's Global Citizens

China's Energy by the Numbers

• China currently meets more than 90 percent of its overall energy demand with domestic supply.
  
• China will quadruple its gross domestic product (GDP) from 2000 to 2020. In 2005, China's GDP reached $2.3 trillion. China's short-term goal is to reduce the use of energy per unit of GDP by 20 percent by 2010.
  
• It is estimated that China's oil consumption grew about 6 percent and reached 177 million tons in 2005—increasing 9 million tons per year.
  
• At present, the oil refining facilities of the two Chinese oil giants, PetroChina and Sinopec, are running at full capacity. To maintain domestic oil supply, they would need to add 17 million tons of oil refining capacity in 2006, an increase of roughly 10 percent over current levels.
  
• According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), world oil demand will continue to increase by 2.1 percent in 2006 to reach 85.5 million barrels per day (bpd).
  
• China's oil demand doubled from 1.7 to 3.4 million bpd between 1985 and 1995. It doubled again, reaching 6.8 million bpd by 2005, with the result that in 2005 China imported 2.46 million bpd—or about 40 percent of its oil needs.
  
• Analysts predict that China's share of world oil consumption could double to 14 percent over the next decade. The US Department of Energy expects that China's imported oil will climb to 9.4 million bpd by 2025, an estimate that some energy analysts believe is conservative.
  
• While 94 percent of China's overall energy supply came from domestic resources in 2005, this is projected to be near 80 percent in 2020.
  
• Natural gas consumption now accounts for only 3 percent of total Chinese energy needs, but the government plans to more than double that proportion by 2010, to 8 percent of total energy demand.
  
• Considering oil and natural gas supply constraints, China has again shifted its efforts to more dependence on coal. Traditionally, coal is dominant in China's energy consumption. Accordingly, by 2030 coal is expected to provide 62 percent, oil 18 percent, natural gas 8 percent, hydropower 9 percent, and nuclear power 3 percent.
  
• China has set a goal to achieve a per capita oil consumption of 2-2.5 tons and a total national oil consumption of 3-3.75 billion tons by 2050. To achieve this goal, China will need to achieve an energy efficiency of 55-60 percent, higher than that of developed countries today. It is obvious that the above goal cannot be achieved with the current coal-based structure alone.
  
• In comparison, Japan has developed the highest energy consumption efficiency in the world. If the energy consumption of Japan for producing one unit of GDP is denoted as one, then that of the European Union is 1.6; the United States, 2.7; the Republic of Korea, 3.3; and China, 9. Clearly, there is still a lot of inefficiency in China's energy consumption compared with major developed countries, leaving much room for improvement.
  
• China's current strategic oil reserve is far from satisfactory, with planned reserves of 15 million tons. However, according to a statistical report on China's oil consumption in 2002, 15 million tons of oil reserve is only sufficient for about 20 days of domestic oil consumption. In developed countries with established strategic oil reserves such as the United States, Japan, Germany, and France, their reserves will be able to last 158 days, 161 days, 117 days, and 96 days, respectively.
  

The data used in this article was based on Dr. Xuecheng Liu's China's Energy Security and Its Grand Strategy, a Policy Analysis Brief written for the Stanley Foundation.

—Ashley Calkins